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Cremonese vs Carpi — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Carpi
Carpi
12/22/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cremonese54%
×Draw24%
Carpi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.73
Carpi
1.00

Cremonese creates 73% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Carpi
1.11

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Carpi
2.06

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Carpi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Carpi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
78%
Cremonese or Carpi
76%
Draw or Carpi
46%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
30%
Carpi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
82%
Cremonese 2+ goals
52%
Cremonese 3+ goals
25%
Carpi 1+ goals
63%
Carpi 2+ goals
26%
Carpi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
71%
Carpi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Carpi away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Carpi defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Carpi attack 1.11 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cremonese scores more
54%
level
24%
Carpi scores more
22%

Cremonese at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Cremonese 1–2 Carpi

Carpi beat Cremonese 2-1 in Serie B on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.