Cremonese 1–3 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cremonese

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atalanta

4/1/2023

Serie A · Round 28Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Cremonese32%

×Draw26%

Atalanta41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.39

Cremonese

1.19

Atalanta

1.39

Atalanta creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

1.16

creates per match

1.40

1.38

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cremonese

1.16

Atalanta

1.40

allows per match

Cremonese

1.38

Atalanta

1.22

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Cremonese-0.21scores less

Atalanta+0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

59%

Cremonese or Atalanta

74%

Draw or Atalanta

68%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

13%

Atalanta wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

70%

Cremonese 2+ goals

33%

Cremonese 3+ goals

12%

Atalanta 1+ goals

75%

Atalanta 2+ goals

40%

Atalanta 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

44%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.16 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atalanta attack 1.40 + Cremonese defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cremonese scores more

32%

level

26%

Atalanta scores more

41%

Atalanta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff