Cremonese U20 3–3 Genoa U20: Result & Stats

Cremonese U20

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Genoa U20

9/15/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Campo Amadio Soldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cremonese U2035%

×Draw26%

Genoa U2039%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cremonese U20Expected goals in this matchGenoa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.41

Cremonese U20

1.31

Genoa U20

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.18

creates per match

1.32

1.50

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cremonese U20

1.18

Genoa U20

1.32

allows per match

Cremonese U20

1.50

Genoa U20

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cremonese U20+0.00on par

Genoa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U20 ↓

Genoa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cremonese U20 or draw

61%

Cremonese U20 or Genoa U20

74%

Draw or Genoa U20

65%

Winning margin

Cremonese U20 wins by 2+

15%

Genoa U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cremonese U20 1+ goals

73%

Cremonese U20 2+ goals

38%

Cremonese U20 3+ goals

14%

Genoa U20 1+ goals

76%

Genoa U20 2+ goals

41%

Genoa U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Genoa U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U20 attack 1.18 + Genoa U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Genoa U20 attack 1.32 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cremonese U20 scores more

35%

level

26%

Genoa U20 scores more

39%

Genoa U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Genoa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff