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Cremonese U19 vs Vicenza U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
FT
3 – 2
Vicenza U19
Vicenza U19
2/18/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Campo Amadio Soldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Cremonese U1948%
×Draw22%
Vicenza U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U19
1.97
Vicenza U19
1.55

Cremonese U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cremonese U19
2.31
Vicenza U19
1.46

allows per match

Cremonese U19
1.65
Vicenza U19
1.62

finishing

Cremonese U19+0.00on par
Vicenza U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U19 ↓

Vicenza U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cremonese U19 or draw
69%
Cremonese U19 or Vicenza U19
78%
Draw or Vicenza U19
52%

Winning margin

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
27%
Vicenza U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cremonese U19 1+ goals
86%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
58%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
31%
Vicenza U19 1+ goals
79%
Vicenza U19 2+ goals
46%
Vicenza U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Vicenza U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Vicenza U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.62 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U19 attack 2.31 + Vicenza U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.97

Vicenza U19 attack 1.46 + Cremonese U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cremonese U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Vicenza U19 scores more
31%

Cremonese U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Cremonese U19 3–2 Vicenza U19

Cremonese U19 beat Vicenza U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Amadio Soldi in Cremona.