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Cremonese U19 vs Parma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Parma U19
Parma U19
9/17/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 2Campo Amadio Soldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Cremonese U1936%
×Draw22%
Parma U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U19
1.67
Parma U19
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 70 away

creates per match

Cremonese U19
2.31
Parma U19
2.00

allows per match

Cremonese U19
1.65
Parma U19
1.03

finishing

Cremonese U19+0.00on par
Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U19 ↓

Parma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cremonese U19 or draw
58%
Cremonese U19 or Parma U19
78%
Draw or Parma U19
64%

Winning margin

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
18%
Parma U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cremonese U19 1+ goals
81%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
50%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
23%
Parma U19 1+ goals
84%
Parma U19 2+ goals
54%
Parma U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Parma U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U19 attack 2.31 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + Cremonese U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cremonese U19 scores more
36%
level
22%
Parma U19 scores more
42%

Parma U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese U19 vs Parma U19

Parma U19 beat Cremonese U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Amadio Soldi in Cremona.