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Cremonese U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cesena U19
Cesena U19advanced
G. Gabbiani 120+5' (pen)
S. Lottici Tessadri 120+3' (pen)
D. Stuckler 120+2' (pen), 41'
D. Lordkipanidze 120+1' (pen)
G. Mattioli 120+6' (pen)
V. Coveri 120+5' (pen)
R. Domeniconi 120+4' (pen)
F. Valentini 120+3' (pen)
G. Ghinelli 120+1' (pen)
A. Giovannini 57'
5/16/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Championship - FinalStadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cremonese U1935%
×Draw21%
Cesena U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U19
1.87
Cesena U19
2.11

Cesena U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cremonese U19
2.31
Cesena U19
2.57

allows per match

Cremonese U19
1.65
Cesena U19
1.43

finishing

Cremonese U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Cremonese U19 or draw
56%
Cremonese U19 or Cesena U19
79%
Draw or Cesena U19
65%

Winning margin

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
18%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cremonese U19 1+ goals
85%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
56%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
29%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
88%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
62%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U19 attack 2.31 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.87

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Cremonese U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cremonese U19 scores more
35%
level
21%
Cesena U19 scores more
44%

Cesena U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
D. Stuckler
57'
A. Giovannini
120+1'
D. LordkipanidzePenalty
120+1'
G. GhinelliPenalty
120+2'
D. StucklerPenalty
120+2'
G. PeriniMissed penalty
120+3'
S. Lottici TessadriPenalty
120+3'
F. ValentiniPenalty
120+4'
A. MontantliMissed penalty
120+4'
R. DomeniconiPenalty
120+5'
G. GabbianiPenalty
120+5'
V. CoveriPenalty
120+6'
D. PrendiMissed penalty
120+6'
G. MattioliPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese U19 vs Cesena U19

Cremonese U19 and Cesena U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 16, 2024.

Goals: D. Stuckler (41', 120+2' pen), A. Giovannini (57'), D. Lordkipanidze (120+1' pen), G. Ghinelli (120+1' pen), S. Lottici Tessadri (120+3' pen), F. Valentini (120+3' pen), R. Domeniconi (120+4' pen), G. Gabbiani (120+5' pen), V. Coveri (120+5' pen), G. Mattioli (120+6' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.