Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Hässleholm vs Almeboda Linneryd — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

IFK Hässleholm
IFK Hässleholm
FT
2 – 2
Almeboda Linneryd
Almeboda Linneryd
8/3/2019Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 16Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

IFK Hässleholm43%
×Draw23%
Almeboda Linneryd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Hässleholm
1.81
Almeboda Linneryd
1.61

IFK Hässleholm creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 19 away

creates per match

IFK Hässleholm
1.78
Almeboda Linneryd
1.63

allows per match

IFK Hässleholm
1.59
Almeboda Linneryd
1.84

finishing

IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par
Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Hässleholm ↓

Almeboda Linneryd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

IFK Hässleholm or draw
65%
IFK Hässleholm or Almeboda Linneryd
77%
Draw or Almeboda Linneryd
57%

Winning margin

IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+
23%
Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals
84%
IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals
54%
IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals
27%
Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals
80%
Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals
48%
Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)
55%
Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Hässleholm at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.59 · 85 matches

Almeboda Linneryd away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.78 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.63 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IFK Hässleholm scores more
43%
level
23%
Almeboda Linneryd scores more
35%

IFK Hässleholm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IFK Hässleholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Hässleholm vs Almeboda Linneryd

IFK Hässleholm and Almeboda Linneryd drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Österås IP in Hässleholm.