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Creck vs FOMO — Super League 2026

Creck
Creck
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FOMO
FOMO
5/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Creck56%
×Draw26%
FOMO18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creck
1.52
FOMO
0.73

Creck creates 108% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Creck
1.32
FOMO
0.53

allows per match

Creck
0.94
FOMO
1.73

finishing

Creck+0.00on par
FOMO+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creck ↓

FOMO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Creck or draw
82%
Creck or FOMO
74%
Draw or FOMO
44%

Winning margin

Creck wins by 2+
29%
FOMO wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Creck 1+ goals
78%
Creck 2+ goals
45%
Creck 3+ goals
20%
FOMO 1+ goals
52%
FOMO 2+ goals
17%
FOMO 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Creck (draw refunded)
76%
FOMO (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creck at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

FOMO away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creck attack 1.32 + FOMO defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

FOMO attack 0.53 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Creck scores more
56%
level
26%
FOMO scores more
18%

Creck at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Creck 1 – 0 FOMO

Creck beat FOMO 1-0 in Super League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.