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Creck vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Creck
Creck
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
10/5/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Aubrey Dimba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Creck54%
×Draw27%
Chitipa United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creck
1.43
Chitipa United
0.71

Creck creates 101% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 65 away

creates per match

Creck
1.32
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Creck
0.94
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Creck+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creck ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Creck or draw
81%
Creck or Chitipa United
73%
Draw or Chitipa United
46%

Winning margin

Creck wins by 2+
27%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Creck 1+ goals
76%
Creck 2+ goals
42%
Creck 3+ goals
17%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
51%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
16%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Creck (draw refunded)
75%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creck at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creck attack 1.32 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Creck scores more
54%
level
27%
Chitipa United scores more
19%

Creck at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Creck 0–0 Chitipa United

Creck and Chitipa United drew 0-0 in Super League on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Aubrey Dimba Stadium in Kapiri.