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Creck vs Be Forward Wanderers — Super League 2026

Creck
Creck
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
L. Banda 73'
P. Kamwendo 81'
L. Mithi 39'
5/3/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Creck31%
×Draw31%
Be Forward Wanderers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creck
0.93
Be Forward Wanderers
1.08

Be Forward Wanderers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 77 away

creates per match

Creck
1.29
Be Forward Wanderers
1.23

allows per match

Creck
0.94
Be Forward Wanderers
0.57

finishing

Creck+0.00on par
Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creck ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Creck or draw
61%
Creck or Be Forward Wanderers
69%
Draw or Be Forward Wanderers
69%

Winning margin

Creck wins by 2+
11%
Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Creck 1+ goals
61%
Creck 2+ goals
24%
Creck 3+ goals
7%
Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
66%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
29%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Creck (draw refunded)
44%
Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creck at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creck attack 1.29 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.93

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.23 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Creck scores more
31%
level
31%
Be Forward Wanderers scores more
39%

Be Forward Wanderers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
L. Mithi
73'
L. Banda
81'
P. Kamwendo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Creck vs Be Forward Wanderers

Be Forward Wanderers beat Creck 2-1 in Super League on May 3, 2026.

Goals: L. Mithi (39'), L. Banda (73'), P. Kamwendo (81').