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CRB vs Tombense — Serie B 2018

CRB
CRB
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
6/30/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 15Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CRB54%
×Draw26%
Tombense20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.50
Tombense
0.80

CRB creates 88% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 38 away

creates per match

CRB
1.35
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

CRB
0.86
Tombense
1.66

finishing

CRB+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CRB or draw
80%
CRB or Tombense
74%
Draw or Tombense
46%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
28%
Tombense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
78%
CRB 2+ goals
44%
CRB 3+ goals
19%
Tombense 1+ goals
55%
Tombense 2+ goals
19%
Tombense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
73%
Tombense (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 161 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.35 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tombense attack 0.74 + CRB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CRB scores more
54%
level
26%
Tombense scores more
20%

CRB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CRB vs Tombense

CRB and Tombense drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.