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CRB vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oeste
Oeste
Léo Gamalho 79'
8/12/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 2Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

CRB52%
×Draw26%
Oeste22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.53
Oeste
0.91

CRB creates 68% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 73 away

creates per match

CRB
1.39
Oeste
0.97

allows per match

CRB
0.84
Oeste
1.67

finishing

CRB+0.00on par
Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CRB or draw
78%
CRB or Oeste
74%
Draw or Oeste
48%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
27%
Oeste wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
78%
CRB 2+ goals
45%
CRB 3+ goals
20%
Oeste 1+ goals
60%
Oeste 2+ goals
23%
Oeste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
70%
Oeste (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.39 + Oeste defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Oeste attack 0.97 + CRB defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CRB scores more
52%
level
26%
Oeste scores more
22%

CRB at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Washington SantanaCRBCRB · M
7.4

Match Events

22'
Rael← Guilherme Mantuan
25'
Gum
40'
Kauã
45'
Kalil
45'
Caetano
46'
Felipe Menezes← D. Torres
46'
Bill← Magno Cruz
46'
Rafinha← Kauã
61'
Salomão
68'
Luidy← Erik
71'
Betinho
72'
Luidy
79'
Léo Gamalho↳ Luidy
84'
Thiaguinho← Jatobá
84'
Welliton← Betinho
84'
Tite← Bruno Lopes
87'
Fabricio Oya← Salomão
90+4'
Ricardo Thalheimer← Hugo

Possession

53%CRB

Shots

9CRB

Pass accuracy

51%CRB

Statistics

CRBOeste
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots4
4Corners2
18Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots4
4On Target1
3Off Target3
2Blocked0
5Inside Box0
4Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
439Total Passes385
359Accurate Passes307
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls17
2Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

CRB 1 – 0 Oeste

CRB beat Oeste 1-0 in Serie B on August 12, 2020.

Goals: Léo Gamalho (79').

CRB controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.