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CRB vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Serie BSerie B·2026
CRB
CRB
Preview
23:00
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 11:00 PM
Tournament
Serie B · Regular Season - 18
Big match
45%
CRB
model favours
45%23%32%

Both teams score in 83% of CRB’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CRB45%
×Draw23%
Nautico Recife32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.73
Nautico Recife
1.42

CRB creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

CRB
1.57
Nautico Recife
1.52

allows per match

CRB
1.31
Nautico Recife
1.89

finishing

CRB+0.63scores more
Nautico Recife+0.68scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

CRB or draw
68%
CRB or Nautico Recife
77%
Draw or Nautico Recife
55%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
24%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
82%
CRB 2+ goals
52%
CRB 3+ goals
25%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
76%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
41%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
59%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.57 + Nautico Recife defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nautico Recife attack 1.52 + CRB defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CRB scores more
45%
level
23%
Nautico Recife scores more
32%

CRB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nautico Recife score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 23% of Nautico Recife’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Nautico Recife matches are rarely goalless — only 4.5% end 0-0
  • CRB outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
CRB
Attack-heavy
Nautico Recife
Attack-heavy
52%Possession57%
82%Pass accuracy81%
16.0Shots16.1
1.43xGBiggest gap1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CRBNautico Recife

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
CRB
2
Draws
2
Nautico Recife
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 100%
1–12–21–21–23–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
CRB
DLWDD
Recife
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CRB vs Nautico Recife — Match Preview

CRB face Nautico Recife on July 16, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.