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CRB vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Londrina
Londrina
Guilherme Romão 45+4'
Renato 34'
Iago Dias 56'
7/1/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 15Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

CRB54%
×Draw24%
Londrina22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.69
Londrina
0.98

CRB creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

CRB
1.57
Londrina
0.86

allows per match

CRB
1.09
Londrina
1.80

finishing

CRB-0.14scores less
Londrina+0.34scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Londrina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CRB or draw
78%
CRB or Londrina
76%
Draw or Londrina
46%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
29%
Londrina wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
82%
CRB 2+ goals
50%
CRB 3+ goals
24%
Londrina 1+ goals
62%
Londrina 2+ goals
26%
Londrina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
71%
Londrina (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.09 · 14 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.57 + Londrina defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Londrina attack 0.86 + CRB defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CRB scores more
54%
level
24%
Londrina scores more
22%

CRB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Anselmo RamonCRBCRB · F
7.7

Match Events

34'
Renato↳ Anselmo Ramon
41'
Guilherme Romão
45+4'
Guilherme Romão↳ Juninho Valoura
46'
Nicolas Schulz← Guilherme Lacerda
46'
A. Udeh← Lucas Coelho
56'
Iago Dias↳ Nicolas Schulz
66'
Edimar← Guilherme Romão
67'
Auremir← Lucas Lima
68'
Caio Mancha← Iago Dias
74'
Patrick Marcelino
74'
Diego Jardel← Higor Leite
77'
Hyuri← Rômulo
78'
Anderson Leite← Juninho Valoura
80'
João Paulo
82'
Vinícius Jaú← Paulinho Moccelin
83'
Auremir
87'
Auremir
87'
Auremir
89'
Falcão← Anselmo Ramon
90+7'
Edimar
90+10'
Ezequiel
90+2'
Diego Jardel

Possession

51%CRB

Shots

12CRB

Pass accuracy

50%CRB

Statistics

CRBLondrina
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots18
3Corners9
19Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots18
2On Target5
4Off Target9
6Blocked4
9Inside Box9
3Outside Box9
Passing
51%Possession49%
428Total Passes403
328Accurate Passes312
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
19Fouls18
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

CRB 2 – 1 Londrina

CRB beat Londrina 2-1 in Serie B on July 1, 2023.

Goals: Renato (34'), Guilherme Romão (45+4'), Iago Dias (56').

CRB controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.