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CRB vs Avai — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avai
Avai
4/2/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 2Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CRB43%
×Draw27%
Avai30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.39
Avai
1.11

CRB creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

CRB
1.75
Avai
1.07

allows per match

CRB
1.15
Avai
1.03

finishing

CRB+0.42scores more
Avai-0.27scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CRB or draw
70%
CRB or Avai
73%
Draw or Avai
57%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
20%
Avai wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
75%
CRB 2+ goals
40%
CRB 3+ goals
16%
Avai 1+ goals
67%
Avai 2+ goals
30%
Avai 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
59%
Avai (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 6 matches

Avai away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.75 + Avai defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.39

Avai attack 1.07 + CRB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CRB scores more
43%
level
27%
Avai scores more
30%

CRB at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: CRB 0–1 Avai

Avai beat CRB 1-0 in Serie B on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió.