CRB 2–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

CRB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

João Paulo 73'

Anselmo Ramon 45+4'

1 Gustavo Coutinho 90+11'

8/2/2023

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

CRB47%

×Draw25%

Atletico Goianiense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRBExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.17

CRB

1.59

Atletico Goianiense

1.17

CRB creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

1.23

1.11

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

CRB

1.62

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

allows per match

CRB

1.11

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

CRB-0.15scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CRB or draw

72%

CRB or Atletico Goianiense

75%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

53%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals

80%

CRB 2+ goals

47%

CRB 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.62 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.23 + CRB defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CRB scores more

47%

level

25%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

28%

CRB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Anselmo Ramon

CRB · F

7.9

Match Events

15'

Emerson Santos

29'

Baralhas

45+4'

Anselmo Ramon↳ Hereda

46'

Guilherme← Emerson Santos

63'

Baralhas

63'

Baralhas

73'

João Paulo↳ Lucas Lima

75'

Kelvin← Rodrigo Soares

76'

Anderson Leite← Juninho Valoura

77'

Auremir← Falcão

83'

Bruno Silva← Lucas Lima

83'

Matheus Ribeiro← Hereda

85'

Marcos Serrato← Rhaldney

85'

Airton← Luiz Fernando

87'

Octávio← Gum

90+12'

Anderson Leite

90+11'

1 Gustavo Coutinho↳ Lucas Gazal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRBAtletico

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots11

5Corners7

12Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target5

6Off Target1

2Blocked5

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

402Total Passes404

303Accurate Passes310

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1