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Crawley Town vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
3/26/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 37The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
37%
Crawley Town
model favours
37%26%37%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crawley Town37%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.33
Swindon Town
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Swindon Town
1.28

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Swindon Town
1.38

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Swindon Town+0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
63%
Crawley Town or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
63%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
74%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
38%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
15%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
74%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
39%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Swindon Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Swindon Town attack 1.28 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crawley Town scores more
37%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
37%

Crawley Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Crawley Town sit 22, Swindon Town 9 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
55%Possession53%
71%Pass accuracy71%
12.7Shots12.3
1.41xGBiggest gap1.48
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownSwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Crawley Town
2
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 50%
2–20–13–10–61–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Crawley Town face Swindon Town on March 26, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crawley Town host Swindon Town at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.