Crawley Town 2–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

J. Powell 83'

N. Tsaroulla 79'

12/3/2022

League Two · Round 20Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town39%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.31

Crawley Town

1.41

Swindon Town

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.30

creates per match

1.24

1.38

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Swindon Town

1.24

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Swindon Town

1.51

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

65%

Crawley Town or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

61%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

76%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

41%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

17%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

38%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

53%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Swindon Town defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Swindon Town attack 1.24 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more

39%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

35%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Lynch

Crawley Town · D

7.6

Match Events

8'

32'

44'

46'

53'

T. Fellows← J. Balagizi

54'

T. Shade← L. Jephcott

68'

T. Adeloye← J. Wakeling

69'

M. Baudry← T. Clayton

74'

A. Oteh← D. Telford

79'

N. Tsaroulla↳ T. Fellows

81'

M. Roberts← E. Iandolo

83'

J. Powell

90+8'

M. Lavinier← S. Khan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleySwindon

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots10

2Corners6

17Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target0

3Off Target6

5Blocked4

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

335Total Passes518

232Accurate Passes408

69%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1