Crawley Town 0–4 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Swindon Town

J. Yates 87'

E. Doyle 61', 44', 5'

10/26/2019

League Two · Round 16The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.30

Crawley Town

1.43

Swindon Town

1.30

Crawley Town creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.30

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Swindon Town

1.56

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

66%

Crawley Town or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

19%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

76%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

42%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

17%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

37%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

54%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Doyle

Swindon Town · F

9.8

Match Events

5'

E. Doyle↳ A. Grant

30'

K. Anderson← L. Isgrove

44'

E. Doyle↳ D. Donohue

47'

Jordan Tunnicliffe

51'

T. Allarakhia← A. Nadesan

55'

J. Lyden← D. Jaiyesimi

58'

Tom Dallison

58'

G. van Velzen← Panutche Camará

61'

E. Doyle↳ K. Anderson

66'

Anthony Grant

69'

Reece Grego-Cox

78'

O. Palmer← A. Nathaniel-George

79'

K. Woolery← E. Doyle

81'

Tarryn Allarakhia

87'

J. Yates↳ K. Woolery

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleySwindon

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots20

2Corners2

21Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots20

1On Target6

5Off Target7

1Blocked7

2Inside Box13

5Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

295Total Passes524

192Accurate Passes418

65%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0