Crawley Town 0–1 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sutton Utd

I. Olaofe 84'

10/16/2021

League Two · Round 12The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Crawley Town46%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.16

Crawley Town

1.52

Sutton Utd

1.16

Crawley Town creates 31% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 69 away

1.31

creates per match

1.12

1.20

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

71%

Crawley Town or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

54%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

23%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

78%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

45%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

32%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

61%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crawley Town scores more

46%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

29%

Crawley Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Bouzanis

Sutton Utd · G

8.2

Match Events

19'

Tom Dallison

62'

I. Olaofe← D. Wilson

65'

A. Nadesan← W. Ferry

65'

L. Francillette← J. Powell

72'

Omar Bugiel← R. Bennett

75'

Robert Milsom

75'

Louis John

76'

Dean Bouzanis

81'

W. Randall-Hurren← D. Ajiboye

83'

Ludwig Francillette

84'

I. Olaofe

90+1'

Enzio Boldewijn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleySutton

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots13

6Corners7

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target6

0Off Target2

3Blocked5

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

409Total Passes320

261Accurate Passes168

64%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0