Crawley Town 0–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

E. Osborne 83'

2/16/2021

League Two · Round 23The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Crawley Town43%

×Draw28%

Stevenage29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Crawley Town

1.27

Stevenage

1.00

Crawley Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 100 away

1.31

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

71%

Crawley Town or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

57%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

19%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

72%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

36%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

14%

Stevenage 1+ goals

63%

Stevenage 2+ goals

26%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crawley Town scores more

43%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

29%

Crawley Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

D. Stockdale

Stevenage · G

8.0

Match Events

27'

Tony Craig

37'

Luke Norris

47'

Tom Pett

54'

E. Osborne← M. Stevens

54'

A. Read← J. Roles

60'

60'

69'

73'

77'

81'

83'

A. Nadesan← J. Hessenthaler

83'

E. Osborne↳ E. List

84'

S. Cuthbert← L. Norris

90'

Ben Coker

90+2'

J. Martin← E. List

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyStevenage

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots9

6Corners1

20Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target5

2Off Target3

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

419Total Passes272

293Accurate Passes145

70%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls17

3Yellow Cards6

0Offsides2