Crawley Town 0–0 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Scunthorpe

3/5/2022

League Two · Round 35The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Crawley Town51%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.01

Crawley Town

1.59

Scunthorpe

1.01

Crawley Town creates 57% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 64 away

1.31

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

76%

Crawley Town or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

49%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

27%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

80%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

47%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

21%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

64%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

27%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

68%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Crawley Town scores more

51%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

24%

Crawley Town at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Watson

Scunthorpe · G

8.2

Match Events

60'

62'

69'

70'

73'

84'

M. Marshall← I. Hutchinson

90+3'

Hayden Hackney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyScunthorpe

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots7

4Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target3

4Off Target2

5Blocked2

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

420Total Passes325

268Accurate Passes179

64%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4