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Crawley Town vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
15:00
Salford City
Salford City
1/16/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 25The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
39%
Salford City
model favours
37%25%39%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crawley Town37%
×Draw25%
Salford City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.44
Salford City
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
61%
Crawley Town or Salford City
75%
Draw or Salford City
63%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
17%
Salford City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
76%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
42%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
18%
Salford City 1+ goals
77%
Salford City 2+ goals
43%
Salford City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
49%
Salford City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

Salford City attack 1.55 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more
37%
level
25%
Salford City scores more
39%

Salford City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crawley Town sit 22, Salford City 4 in the table
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
55%Possession52%
72%Pass accuracy67%
12.6Shots13.2
1.36xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownSalford City

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Crawley Town
4
Draws
3
Salford City
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 70%
0–03–40–11–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town vs Salford City — Match Preview

Crawley Town face Salford City on January 16, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crawley Town host Salford City at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.