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Crawley Town vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
38%
Crawley Town
model favours
38%26%35%

Crawley Town win just 0% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Crawley Town38%
×Draw26%
Oldham35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.33
Oldham
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.27
Oldham
1.18

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.36
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
65%
Crawley Town or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
62%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
17%
Oldham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
74%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
38%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
72%
Oldham 2+ goals
36%
Oldham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
52%
Oldham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.27 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oldham attack 1.18 + Crawley Town defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crawley Town scores more
38%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
35%

Crawley Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Crawley Town sit 22, Oldham 10 in the table
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.2 goals
  • Crawley Town fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Oldham
Attack-heavy
51%Possession47%
69%Pass accuracy63%
11.5ShotsBiggest gap12.7
1.51xG1.62
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Crawley Town
3
Draws
2
Oldham
Avg goals: 4.2BTTS: 80%
0–22–23–32–21–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town vs Oldham — Match Preview

Crawley Town face Oldham on January 30, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crawley Town host Oldham at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.