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Crawley Town vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
10/17/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 6The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Crawley Town47%
×Draw25%
Morecambe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.57
Morecambe
1.16

Crawley Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 112 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.39
Morecambe
1.10

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Morecambe
1.75

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
72%
Crawley Town or Morecambe
75%
Draw or Morecambe
53%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
24%
Morecambe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
79%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
46%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
21%
Morecambe 1+ goals
69%
Morecambe 2+ goals
32%
Morecambe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
62%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Crawley Town scores more
47%
level
25%
Morecambe scores more
28%

Crawley Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crawley Town 4–0 Morecambe

Crawley Town beat Morecambe 4-0 in League Two on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.