Crawley Town 1–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

B. Lubala 44' (pen)

C. Stockton 81'

11/16/2019

League Two · Round 18The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Crawley Town45%

×Draw25%

Morecambe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

Crawley Town

1.52

Morecambe

1.19

Crawley Town creates 28% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 93 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

70%

Crawley Town or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

55%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

22%

Morecambe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

78%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

45%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

20%

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

60%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crawley Town scores more

45%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

30%

Crawley Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

B. Lubala

Crawley Town · M

7.6

Match Events

42'

Cole Stockton

44'

B. LubalaPenalty

61'

A. Nathaniel-George← B. Lubala

63'

A. Leitch-Smith← A. Wildig

65'

O. Palmer← A. Nadesan

72'

Luke Conlan

78'

J. O'Sullivan← S. Old

81'

C. Stockton↳ T. Brewitt

83'

M. Enigbokan-Bloomfield← N. Ferguson

84'

K. Ellison← C. Stockton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyMorecambe

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots7

13Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots7

3On Target4

13Off Target3

4Blocked0

7Inside Box6

13Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

383Total Passes280

262Accurate Passes156

68%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1