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Crawley Town vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gillingham
Gillingham
8/19/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Crawley Town45%
×Draw27%
Gillingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.38
Gillingham
1.02

Crawley Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 92 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.39
Gillingham
0.84

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Gillingham
1.36

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
72%
Crawley Town or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
55%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
21%
Gillingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
75%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
40%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
16%
Gillingham 1+ goals
64%
Gillingham 2+ goals
27%
Gillingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
62%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gillingham attack 0.84 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crawley Town scores more
45%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
28%

Crawley Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Gillingham

Gillingham beat Crawley Town 1-0 in League Two on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.