Crawley Town 0–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

11/22/2022

League Two · Round 8Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw26%

Gillingham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Crawley Town

1.42

Gillingham

1.29

Crawley Town creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.30

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Gillingham

1.53

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

66%

Crawley Town or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

19%

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

76%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

41%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

17%

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

54%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

34%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

T. Craig

Crawley Town · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Max Ehmer

20'

Joseph Gbode

57'

J. Tilley← T. Jenks

58'

B. Reeves← H. Adelakun

58'

L. Walker← M. Mandron

59'

S. Kashket← J. Gbode

65'

A. Oteh← D. Telford

65'

T. Fellows← T. Nichols

71'

A. MacDonald← D. Jefferies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyGillingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots8

4Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots8

1On Target1

5Off Target6

2Blocked1

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

425Total Passes336

297Accurate Passes199

70%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2