Crawley Town 2–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

M. Enigbokan-Bloomfield 80'

R. Grego-Cox 55'

L. Prosser 35'

10/12/2019

League Two · Round 13The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town44%

×Draw25%

Colchester32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Crawley Town

1.56

Colchester

1.29

Crawley Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.30

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Colchester

1.81

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

68%

Crawley Town or Colchester

75%

Draw or Colchester

56%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

22%

Colchester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

79%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

46%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

21%

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

58%

Colchester (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Colchester attack 1.21 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crawley Town scores more

44%

level

25%

Colchester scores more

32%

Crawley Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

B. Sarpong Wiredu

Colchester · M

7.6

Match Events

23'

35'

43'

46'

55'

R. Grego-Cox↳ Panutche Camará

65'

A. Nathaniel-George← T. Allarakhia

70'

J. Brown← T. Robinson

77'

B. Stevenson← B. Sarpong Wiredu

80'

M. Enigbokan-Bloomfield

81'

L. Norris← C. Senior

90+1'

G. van Velzen← R. Grego-Cox

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyColchester

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots10

8Corners9

8Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target3

6Off Target4

7Blocked3

7Inside Box8

11Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

340Total Passes291

230Accurate Passes177

68%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Colchester

Crawley Town beat Colchester 2-1 in League Two on October 12, 2019.

Goals: L. Prosser (35'), R. Grego-Cox (55'), M. Enigbokan-Bloomfield (80').

Crawley Town controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.

Crawley Town vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Colchester