Colchester 1–2 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Crawley Town

12/9/2023

League Two · Round 21JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Colchester47%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Colchester

1.50

Crawley Town

1.08

Colchester creates 39% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 158 away

1.37

creates per match

1.08

1.09

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Colchester

1.37

Crawley Town

1.08

allows per match

Colchester

1.09

Crawley Town

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

73%

Colchester or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

53%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

23%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

78%

Colchester 2+ goals

44%

Colchester 3+ goals

19%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

66%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

29%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

63%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colchester scores more

47%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

27%

Colchester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff