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Crawley Town vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
14:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
10/10/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 10The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
40%
Crawley Town
model favours
40%26%34%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crawley Town40%
×Draw26%
Chesterfield34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.43
Chesterfield
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
66%
Crawley Town or Chesterfield
74%
Draw or Chesterfield
60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
19%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
76%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
42%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
17%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
73%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
38%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
54%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more
40%
level
26%
Chesterfield scores more
34%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crawley Town sit 22, Chesterfield 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
54%PossessionBiggest gap60%
71%Pass accuracy78%
12.7Shots11.9
1.41xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownChesterfield

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Crawley Town
3
Draws
2
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 67%
1–12–22–10–20–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crawley Town host Chesterfield

October 10, 2026: Crawley Town take on Chesterfield in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crawley Town host Chesterfield at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.