Crawley Town 0–2 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Chesterfield

J. Flores 88'

K. Dennis 73'

10/17/2017

League Two · Round 14Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw26%

Chesterfield34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.30

Crawley Town

1.44

Chesterfield

1.30

Crawley Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.30

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Chesterfield

1.57

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

66%

Crawley Town or Chesterfield

74%

Draw or Chesterfield

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

19%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

76%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

42%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

18%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

73%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

37%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

54%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

26%

Chesterfield scores more

34%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Robbie Weir

46'

J. Payne← M. Connolly

71'

Panutche Camará← D. Lewis

73'

K. Dennis↳ R. Weir

75'

Joe Rowley

77'

M. Briggs← A. Kellett

83'

I. Meite← D. Bulman

85'

C. Dimaio← K. Dennis

88'

D. De Girolamo← J. Rowley

88'

J. Flores↳ B. Barry

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CrawleyChesterfield

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots9

7Corners2

10Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target7

2Off Target0

3Blocked2

3Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1