Crawley Town vs Cambridge United

Crawley Town

CANC

00:00

Cambridge United

3/28/2020

League Two · Round 41The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crawley Town30%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.44

Crawley Town

1.16

Cambridge United

1.44

Cambridge United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

1.49

1.38

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Cambridge United

1.49

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.38

Cambridge United

1.01

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Crawley Town-0.22scores less

Cambridge United-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

57%

Crawley Town or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

70%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

12%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

69%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

32%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

11%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

76%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

42%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

41%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Cambridge United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Crawley Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crawley Town scores more

30%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

43%

Cambridge United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff