Cambridge United 3–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

K. Kouassi 57'

P. Mpanzu 50'

S. Lavery 13'

K. Tshimanga 66'

10/4/2025

League Two · Round 11Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cambridge United61%

×Draw21%

Crawley Town18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.03

Cambridge United

2.06

Crawley Town

1.03

Cambridge United creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

2.33

creates per match

1.51

0.55

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Cambridge United

2.33

Crawley Town

1.51

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.55

Crawley Town

1.80

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.47scores more

Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

82%

Cambridge United or Crawley Town

79%

Draw or Crawley Town

39%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

37%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

87%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

61%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

34%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

64%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

28%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

77%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.55 · 5 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 2.33 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Cambridge United defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cambridge United scores more

61%

level

21%

Crawley Town scores more

18%

Cambridge United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Brophy

Cambridge United · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

13'

46'

49'

50'

55'

K. Tshimanga← K. Dixon

57'

K. Kouassi↳ J. Brophy

66'

72'

74'

75'

79'

80'

87'

88'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeCrawley

Overview

29%Possession71%

7Total Shots14

2Corners10

11Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots14

5On Target3

1Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box7

Passing

29%Possession71%

198Total Passes487

103Accurate Passes408

52%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides3

League Two: Cambridge United 3–1 Crawley Town

Cambridge United beat Crawley Town 3-1 in League Two on October 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Lavery (13'), P. Mpanzu (50'), K. Kouassi (57'), K. Tshimanga (66').

Crawley Town controlled possession (71%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.

Cambridge United vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Cambridge United 3–1 Crawley Town