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Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
14:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
39%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
35%26%39%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crawley Town35%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.25
Bristol Rovers
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Bristol Rovers
1.28

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Bristol Rovers
1.21

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Bristol Rovers-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
61%
Crawley Town or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
65%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
15%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
71%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
36%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
13%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
74%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
39%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
47%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bristol Rovers attack 1.28 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more
35%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
39%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
54%Possession51%
71%Pass accuracy66%
12.7Shots11.5
1.41xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 33%
1–34–01–00–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crawley Town host Bristol Rovers

August 29, 2026: Crawley Town take on Bristol Rovers in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crawley Town host Bristol Rovers at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.