Crawley Town 1–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

K. Doyle 19'

3/22/2025

League One · Round 38Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Crawley Town44%

×Draw26%

Bristol Rovers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.14

Crawley Town

1.45

Bristol Rovers

1.14

Crawley Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 131 away

1.30

creates per match

0.95

1.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.33

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

70%

Crawley Town or Bristol Rovers

74%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

56%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

21%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

77%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

42%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

18%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

68%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

32%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

60%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Crawley Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crawley Town scores more

44%

level

26%

Bristol Rovers scores more

30%

Crawley Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

J. Ward

Bristol Rovers · G

8.0

Match Events

19'

K. Doyle↳ R. Hepburn-Murphy

32'

Charlie Barker

45'

James Wilson

56'

S. Forde← L. Thomas

56'

G. O'Donkor← I. Hutchinson

57'

Panutche Camará← L. Watson

57'

H. Forster← J. Kelly

70'

T. John-Jules← R. Hepburn-Murphy

70'

W. Swan← Junior Quitirna

71'

M. Anderson← B. Ibrahim

75'

R. Sawyers← S. Sinclair

76'

S. Swinkels← C. Mola

76'

L. Sousa← G. Ward

83'

Thimothee Lo-Tutala

90+7'

Connor Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyBristol

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots7

1Corners1

17Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots7

7On Target1

1Off Target5

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

2Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

448Total Passes335

357Accurate Passes217

80%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2