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Crawley Town vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
2/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 31The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
40%
Crawley Town
model favours
40%27%32%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Crawley Town40%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.29
Accrington ST
1.13

Crawley Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Accrington ST
0.84

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Accrington ST
1.29

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Accrington ST-0.34scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
68%
Crawley Town or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
18%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
72%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
37%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
14%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
68%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
31%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
55%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Accrington ST defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Accrington ST attack 0.84 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more
40%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
32%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Accrington ST
Defensively solid
54%Possession47%
71%Pass accuracy62%
12.7Shots11.4
1.41xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownAccrington ST

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Crawley Town
3
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 70%
3–31–11–03–11–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crawley Town host Accrington ST

February 13, 2027: Crawley Town take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crawley Town host Accrington ST at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.