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Accrington ST vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
2/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST44%
×Draw26%
Crawley Town30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.46
Crawley Town
1.16

Accrington ST creates 26% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 158 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.30
Crawley Town
1.08

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.23
Crawley Town
1.63

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
70%
Accrington ST or Crawley Town
74%
Draw or Crawley Town
56%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
21%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
77%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
43%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
18%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
69%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
32%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
59%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Accrington ST scores more
44%
level
26%
Crawley Town scores more
30%

Accrington ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Accrington ST 0–1 Crawley Town

Crawley Town beat Accrington ST 1-0 in League Two on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.