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Cranborne Bullets vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
FT
0 – 1
Yadah
Yadah
5/6/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cranborne Bullets38%
×Draw32%
Yadah30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cranborne Bullets
1.00
Yadah
0.86

Cranborne Bullets creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.65
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.91
Yadah
1.34

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw
70%
Cranborne Bullets or Yadah
68%
Draw or Yadah
62%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
14%
Yadah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
63%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
26%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
8%
Yadah 1+ goals
58%
Yadah 2+ goals
21%
Yadah 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
56%
Yadah (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.00

Yadah attack 0.82 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more
38%
level
32%
Yadah scores more
30%

Cranborne Bullets at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cranborne Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cranborne Bullets 0–1 Yadah

Yadah beat Cranborne Bullets 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.