Cranborne Bullets 3–1 Whawha: Result & Stats

Cranborne Bullets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Whawha

9/3/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 26Vengere Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cranborne Bullets58%

×Draw27%

Whawha16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cranborne BulletsExpected goals in this matchWhawha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.63

Cranborne Bullets

1.47

Whawha

0.63

Cranborne Bullets creates 133% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

0.65

creates per match

0.35

0.91

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets

0.65

Whawha

0.35

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets

0.91

Whawha

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Whawha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Whawha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw

84%

Cranborne Bullets or Whawha

73%

Draw or Whawha

42%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

30%

Whawha wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

77%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

43%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

18%

Whawha 1+ goals

47%

Whawha 2+ goals

13%

Whawha 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

78%

Whawha (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Whawha away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Whawha defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Whawha attack 0.35 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more

58%

level

27%

Whawha scores more

16%

Cranborne Bullets at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cranborne Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff