Cracovia U19 2–3 Zagłębie Lubin U19: Result & Stats

Cracovia U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Zagłębie Lubin U19

9/23/2023

Central Youth League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cracovia U1935%

×Draw21%

Zagłębie Lubin U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia U19Expected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.07

Cracovia U19

1.83

Zagłębie Lubin U19

2.07

Zagłębie Lubin U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

2.19

creates per match

1.79

2.35

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cracovia U19

2.19

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.79

allows per match

Cracovia U19

2.35

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U19 ↓

Zagłębie Lubin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Cracovia U19 or draw

56%

Cracovia U19 or Zagłębie Lubin U19

79%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin U19

65%

Winning margin

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

18%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

84%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

54%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

28%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals

87%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals

61%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

Zagłębie Lubin U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U19 attack 2.19 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 1.79 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cracovia U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more

44%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff