Cracovia U19 5–0 Wisła Kraków U19: Result & Stats

Cracovia U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wisła Kraków U19

11/18/2023

Central Youth League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cracovia U1937%

×Draw20%

Wisła Kraków U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia U19Expected goals in this matchWisła Kraków U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

2.16

Cracovia U19

1.99

Wisła Kraków U19

2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

2.19

creates per match

1.96

2.35

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Cracovia U19

2.19

Wisła Kraków U19

1.96

allows per match

Cracovia U19

2.35

Wisła Kraków U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Wisła Kraków U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U19 ↓

Wisła Kraków U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Cracovia U19 or draw

57%

Cracovia U19 or Wisła Kraków U19

80%

Draw or Wisła Kraków U19

63%

Winning margin

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

20%

Wisła Kraków U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

86%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

59%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

32%

Wisła Kraków U19 1+ goals

88%

Wisła Kraków U19 2+ goals

63%

Wisła Kraków U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Wisła Kraków U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

Wisła Kraków U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U19 attack 2.19 + Wisła Kraków U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.99

Wisła Kraków U19 attack 1.96 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cracovia U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

Wisła Kraków U19 scores more

43%

Wisła Kraków U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wisła Kraków U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff