Cracovia U19 5–3 Widzew Łódź U19: Result & Stats

Cracovia U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Widzew Łódź U19

11/4/2023

Central Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cracovia U1953%

×Draw19%

Widzew Łódź U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia U19Expected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.81

Cracovia U19

2.53

Widzew Łódź U19

1.81

Cracovia U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

2.19

creates per match

1.27

2.35

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Cracovia U19

2.19

Widzew Łódź U19

1.27

allows per match

Cracovia U19

2.35

Widzew Łódź U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U19 ↓

Widzew Łódź U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Cracovia U19 or draw

72%

Cracovia U19 or Widzew Łódź U19

81%

Draw or Widzew Łódź U19

47%

Winning margin

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

33%

Widzew Łódź U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

92%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

71%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

46%

Widzew Łódź U19 1+ goals

84%

Widzew Łódź U19 2+ goals

54%

Widzew Łódź U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Widzew Łódź U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

Widzew Łódź U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U19 attack 2.19 + Widzew Łódź U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.53

Widzew Łódź U19 attack 1.27 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cracovia U19 scores more

53%

level

19%

Widzew Łódź U19 scores more

28%

Cracovia U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cracovia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff