Cracovia U19 1–4 Polonia Warszawa U19

Cracovia U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Polonia Warszawa U19

9/20/2023

Central Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cracovia U1937%

×Draw21%

Polonia Warszawa U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia U19Expected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.09

Cracovia U19

1.96

Polonia Warszawa U19

2.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

2.19

creates per match

1.83

2.35

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Cracovia U19

2.19

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.83

allows per match

Cracovia U19

2.35

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U19 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Cracovia U19 or draw

58%

Cracovia U19 or Polonia Warszawa U19

79%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa U19

63%

Winning margin

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

20%

Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

86%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

58%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

31%

Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

88%

Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

62%

Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

Polonia Warszawa U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U19 attack 2.19 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.96

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.83 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cracovia U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more

42%

Polonia Warszawa U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff