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Cracovia U18 vs Lech Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Cracovia U18
Cracovia U18
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
3/26/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cracovia U1839%
×Draw22%
Lech Poznań U1840%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia U18
1.85
Lech Poznań U18
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cracovia U18
1.82
Lech Poznań U18
2.13

allows per match

Cracovia U18
1.63
Lech Poznań U18
1.87

finishing

Cracovia U18+0.00on par
Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U18 ↓

Lech Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Cracovia U18 or draw
60%
Cracovia U18 or Lech Poznań U18
78%
Draw or Lech Poznań U18
61%

Winning margin

Cracovia U18 wins by 2+
20%
Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cracovia U18 1+ goals
84%
Cracovia U18 2+ goals
55%
Cracovia U18 3+ goals
28%
Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
56%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U18 (draw refunded)
49%
Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U18 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Lech Poznań U18 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U18 attack 1.82 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.13 + Cracovia U18 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cracovia U18 scores more
39%
level
22%
Lech Poznań U18 scores more
40%

Lech Poznań U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cracovia U18 vs Lech Poznań U18

Cracovia U18 beat Lech Poznań U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on March 26, 2022.