Cracovia U18 2–1 Hutnik Kraków U18: Result & Stats

Cracovia U18

FT

2 – 1

Hutnik Kraków U18

9/12/2020

Central Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cracovia U1870%

×Draw16%

Hutnik Kraków U1814%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia U18Expected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.18

Cracovia U18

2.77

Hutnik Kraków U18

1.18

Cracovia U18 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

1.82

creates per match

0.73

1.63

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Cracovia U18

1.82

Hutnik Kraków U18

0.73

allows per match

Cracovia U18

1.63

Hutnik Kraków U18

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia U18+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U18 ↓

Hutnik Kraków U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Cracovia U18 or draw

86%

Cracovia U18 or Hutnik Kraków U18

84%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków U18

30%

Winning margin

Cracovia U18 wins by 2+

49%

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cracovia U18 1+ goals

94%

Cracovia U18 2+ goals

76%

Cracovia U18 3+ goals

51%

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals

69%

Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals

33%

Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U18 (draw refunded)

83%

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U18 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Hutnik Kraków U18 away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U18 attack 1.82 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.77

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 0.73 + Cracovia U18 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cracovia U18 scores more

70%

level

16%

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more

14%

Cracovia U18 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cracovia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff