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Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2018

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
8/28/2022EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 7Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cracovia Krakow41%
×Draw28%
Warta Poznań31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Krakow
1.29
Warta Poznań
1.08

Cracovia Krakow creates 19% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.44
Warta Poznań
1.06

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.09
Warta Poznań
1.14

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw
69%
Cracovia Krakow or Warta Poznań
72%
Draw or Warta Poznań
59%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
19%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
72%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
37%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
14%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
66%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
29%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
57%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.09 · 137 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.44 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more
41%
level
28%
Warta Poznań scores more
31%

Cracovia Krakow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań

Warta Poznań beat Cracovia Krakow 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.