Cracovia Kraków II 2–0 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Cracovia Kraków II

FT

2 – 0

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

3/20/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II53%

×Draw22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia Kraków IIExpected goals in this matchWólczanka W. Pełkińska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.32

Cracovia Kraków II

1.98

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.32

Cracovia Kraków II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

1.87

creates per match

1.38

1.27

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II

1.87

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.38

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II

1.27

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw

75%

Cracovia Kraków II or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

78%

Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

47%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+

30%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals

86%

Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals

59%

Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals

31%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

73%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

38%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)

67%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.98

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more

53%

level

22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

25%

Cracovia Kraków II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff