Cracovia Kraków II 5–1 Tomasovia Tomaszów

Cracovia Kraków II

FT

5 – 1

Tomasovia Tomaszów

11/20/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II57%

×Draw22%

Tomasovia Tomaszów21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia Kraków IIExpected goals in this matchTomasovia Tomaszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.10

Cracovia Kraków II

1.94

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.10

Cracovia Kraków II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

1.87

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II

1.87

Tomasovia Tomaszów

0.94

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II

1.27

Tomasovia Tomaszów

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Tomasovia Tomaszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw

79%

Cracovia Kraków II or Tomasovia Tomaszów

78%

Draw or Tomasovia Tomaszów

43%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+

33%

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals

86%

Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals

58%

Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals

30%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals

67%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals

30%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)

73%

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 0.94 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more

57%

level

22%

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more

21%

Cracovia Kraków II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff