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Cracovia Kraków II vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
M. Broda 77' (OG)
M. Stachera 75'
T. Bala 54'
K. Jodlowski 38'
R. Kanach 36'
G. Platek 69'
M. Pienczak 25' (OG)
5/7/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II46%
×Draw24%
Podhale Nowy Targ30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Kraków II
1.68
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.32

Cracovia Kraków II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 86 away

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.87
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.27
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw
70%
Cracovia Kraków II or Podhale Nowy Targ
76%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
54%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
81%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
50%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
73%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
38%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
60%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more
46%
level
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
30%

Cracovia Kraków II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. PienczakOwn goal
36'
R. Kanach
38'
K. Jodlowski
54'
T. Bala
69'
G. Platek
75'
M. Stachera
77'
M. BrodaOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Cracovia Kraków II 5–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

Cracovia Kraków II beat Podhale Nowy Targ 5-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 7, 2022.

Goals: M. Pienczak (25' o.g.), R. Kanach (36'), K. Jodlowski (38'), T. Bala (54'), G. Platek (69'), M. Stachera (75'), M. Broda (77' o.g.).

The match was played at Baza treningowa KS Cracovia in Rączna.